By now you’ve heard the headlines–NAEP scores are down almost across the board, with the exception of 4th grade reading. Many states saw drops, some of them large. Here are my thoughts.

1. These results are quite disappointing and shouldn’t be sugar-coated. Especially in mathematics, where we’ve seen literally two decades of uninterrupted progress, it’s (frankly) shocking to see declines like this. We’ve become almost expectant of the slow-but-steady increase in NAEP scores, and this release should shake that complacency. That said, we should not forget the two decades of progress when thinking about this two-year dip (nor should we forget that we still have yawning opportunity and achievement gaps and vast swaths of the population unprepared for success in college or career).
2. Some folks are out with screeds blaming the results on particular policies that they don’t like (test-based accountability, unions, charters, Arne Duncan, etc.). Regardless of what the actual results were, they’d have made these same points. So these folks should be ignored in favor of actual research.[1] In general, people offering misNAEPery can only be of two types: (1) people who don’t know any better, or (2) people who know better but are shameless/irresponsible. Generally I would say anyone affiliated with a university who is blaming these results on particular policies at this point is highly likely to be in the latter camp.
3. To a large extent, what actually caused these results (Common Core? Implementation? Teacher evaluation? Waivers? The economy? Opt-out? Something else?) is irrelevant in the court of public opinion. Perception is what matters. And the perception, fueled by charlatans and naifs, will be that Common Core is to blame. I wouldn’t be surprised if these results led to renewed repeal efforts for both the standards and the assessments in a number of states, even if there is, as yet, no evidence that these policies are harmful.

Overall, it’s a sad turn of events. And what makes it all the more sad is the knowledge that the results will be used in all kinds of perverse ways to score cheap political points and make policy decisions that may or may not help kids. We can’t do anything about the scores at this point. But we can do something about the misuse of the results. So, let’s.

[1] For instance, here’s a few summaries I’ve written on testing and accountability, and here’s a nice review chapter. These all conclude, rightly, that accountability has produced meaningful positive effects on student outcomes.